Will the Likud be the second biggest party?

(A Post by Joe Settler)

(7:25 AM: Hamas hits Israel with rocket at Shaar HaNegev)

Elections are this Tuesday, and the Likud is dropping fast in all the polls, with the votes all heading on over to Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu.

Kadima is (temporarily?) still in second place (close or distant depending on who took the poll), but if the momentum of this war of attrition continues at the current pace, the Likud is in a serious threat of becoming the second biggest party.

Personally I am confused by two trends in the current race.

First, who in their right mind is still thinking of voting for Kadima?

I can understand not wanting to vote for the empty seats in Labor (and they've been rising too since pulling out and failing to ensure a decisive victory), but why are so many Left Wingers actually considering voting for this party of failures, opportunists, criminals, sex offenders and losers?

With every under reported missile that hits Israel, you should expect to see Kadima's failed ceasefire and pull-out drag them down even faster and further. Yet it doesn't!

Is it simply for lack of a viable alternative? How about Green-Meimad at least?


Second, while I understand the thinking to some people that Lieberman represents what the Likud is supposed to be, particularly with Bibi striving so hard to say he will include Labor and Kadima in his government... but still!

Can it be that Bibi is the driving force behind the Likud's rapid drop?

First Bibi scares away all the Settlers and Right Wing voters who would have voted Likud if Feiglin had been kept in position 20 - and that was when Likud had the highest number of voters in all the polls.

Now Bibi scares away all the traditional Likud voters by saying that he plans a coalition with Kadima and Labor.

I highly suspect that traditional Likud voters don't want Labor and Kadima in their government, and this is their message.

It could also be that Likud voters are angry at the violence, posturing and positioning taken by the local Arab citizenship during the last war, and Lieberman's message of Loyalty Tests appeals to them as proper punishment (or correction). But they aren't reading the rest of his platform or understanding the ramifications.

At least most of the polls show that Ichud Leumi, while still small, is consistently growing.

I'm hoping Jameel decides to weigh in on this strange and disturbing Lieberman-Likud phenomena.


Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael טובה הארץ מאד מאד