tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post8053685531888841467..comments2024-03-27T07:01:13.725+02:00Comments on The Muqata: SuperElection Tuesday Feb 10 2009Jameel @ The Muqatahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15890095633246557332noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-26358512761062609842009-02-11T09:41:00.000+02:002009-02-11T09:41:00.000+02:00The "double-envelope" overseas, soldier, sailors e...The "double-envelope" overseas, soldier, sailors etc. votes are only going to be counted tomorrow. Traditionally combat soldiers have voted to the right. Does anyone know how many votes are left to be counted? How likely is it that these votes could swing the results to (at least) a tie between Likud-Kadima in the number of mandates?Gee a Moronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00049652650047347640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-66638229221402216832009-02-11T04:09:00.000+02:002009-02-11T04:09:00.000+02:00More scary - should Kadima wish to, they could for...More scary - should Kadima wish to, they could form a coalition by playing those same parties against one another.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-83316421761213794472009-02-11T04:05:00.000+02:002009-02-11T04:05:00.000+02:00All I write assumes the results stay approximately...All I write assumes the results stay approximately as the tentative numbers appear.<BR/><BR/>The right should only see this as a disaster and the center-left as a surprise 11th hour reprieve. A government that was corrupt, botched up one war and set up miniscule goals for another is able to remain one of the two primary parties in Israel. What will it take for the RW to win - a defeat in a more substantive war? Even if all the math would allow for a RW government, that's no longer where the smart money will lie.<BR/><BR/>If the results stay approximately constant, whoever wins (but especially Kadima) will have incentive to have a Kadima-Likud coalition. <BR/><BR/>As much as the two parties leaderships hate each other, together they only need one other party and can play Shas, Yisrael Beitenu and Labor against each other meaning their own interests get best served. Even UTJ, as of now, can offer them enough for 60 seats. Their joint governance is the best recipe for stability over 4 years and even Netanyahu would probably prefer negotiating one time to get control then haggle with the 5 or 6 other parties he'd need all of to maintain his leadership.<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile serious questions will need to be asked as to whether Yisrael Beitenu sparked a counter-vote that overwhelmed whatever it is that it thought it was accomplishing. The right of the right may well have overplayed their hand.<BR/><BR/>Netanyahu has the better hand (though a Kadima-Yisrael Beitenu coaltion is also possible, though far less stable) in that, unlike Livni, he'll have several theoretical choices. But his best bet is to use that as leverage for a 'centrist' coalition. <BR/><BR/>HAGTBG (also Anon 10:35)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-32136810774771190712009-02-11T03:07:00.000+02:002009-02-11T03:07:00.000+02:00I"L is free market, and B"Y is probably also. Y"B ...I"L is free market, and B"Y is probably also. Y"B is definitely free market. <BR/><BR/>There is also the religious issue. Lieberman wants to push for civil marriages. How will that work with UTJ and Shas?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-35375763330291146512009-02-11T03:04:00.000+02:002009-02-11T03:04:00.000+02:00I discussed this on my blog. I think they will all...I discussed this on my blog. I think they will all find a way to work together. <BR/><BR/>The economics side will be difficult, but remember that Kadima completely spurned Shas's demands last time, and Shas recognizes that while their sector is hurting from the removal of the child stipends, Bibi's economic plan is what helped keep our economy from collapsing. There will definitely be some horse trading there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-87875940597629635342009-02-11T02:52:00.000+02:002009-02-11T02:52:00.000+02:00Better that price than them switching to join Livn...Better that price than them switching to join Livni, though - something they might threaten to do.<BR/><BR/>But you're right - a heavy price.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-66894148120933190912009-02-11T02:50:00.000+02:002009-02-11T02:50:00.000+02:00exactly Ezzie. At least 15 seats in a coalition of...exactly Ezzie. At least 15 seats in a coalition of 64-65. That will come at a price.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-80678884721778198752009-02-11T02:46:00.001+02:002009-02-11T02:46:00.001+02:00Er... and Agudah.Er... and Agudah.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-46007907455852998642009-02-11T02:46:00.000+02:002009-02-11T02:46:00.000+02:00I don't think that's true; other than Shas, the pa...I don't think that's true; other than Shas, the parties are more to the right economically.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-36085239789918111102009-02-11T02:45:00.000+02:002009-02-11T02:45:00.000+02:00JoeSettler I hear you but you realise that your ri...JoeSettler I hear you but you realise that your right wing bloc includes parties that are very left wing on economic issues. Meaning that a right wing coalition might be formed but with compromises that will cripple the economy. <BR/><BR/>If Shas get's 11 seats, what will than mean for further economic reforms to make it easier to create wealth?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-81365880487883913862009-02-11T02:39:00.000+02:002009-02-11T02:39:00.000+02:00Ouch. Latest update knocks that to 64.Ouch. Latest update knocks that to 64.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-9129246242195880492009-02-11T02:35:00.000+02:002009-02-11T02:35:00.000+02:00Interesting that over 30k votes have been invalida...Interesting that over 30k votes have been invalidated. Is that high or normal?<BR/><BR/>With 80% counted, a RW/religious bloc would have 66 seats.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-41830795956972176592009-02-11T02:32:00.000+02:002009-02-11T02:32:00.000+02:00Litvishe,Sorry, but the Golan Heights were finishe...Litvishe,<BR/><BR/>Sorry, but the Golan Heights were finished first, as was Eilat and the Negev a while ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-90691605781418816922009-02-11T02:31:00.000+02:002009-02-11T02:31:00.000+02:00Simon, on an individual party level that is bad, b...Simon, on an individual party level that is bad, but in what looks like a right wing/religious bloc, we are leading big time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-60033281212455893392009-02-11T01:56:00.000+02:002009-02-11T01:56:00.000+02:00Just over 2 million votes counted and Kadima now h...Just over 2 million votes counted and Kadima now has over 20,000 more than Likud, God help us...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-13269969876310903232009-02-11T01:46:00.000+02:002009-02-11T01:46:00.000+02:00Joe,Take into consideration that the Central area ...Joe,<BR/><BR/>Take into consideration that the Central area polling stations are counted first. Most likely we'll see a jump in Likud/Right as outlying towns are counted.Litvshehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16298062565136162359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-84354616904610581982009-02-11T00:49:00.000+02:002009-02-11T00:49:00.000+02:00He's will likely go with both, and they both will ...He's will likely go with both, and they both will cooperate with him. <BR/><BR/>I'm writing a post on <A HREF="http://joesettler.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow">JoeSettler</A> about this right now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-76151854453530871762009-02-11T00:32:00.000+02:002009-02-11T00:32:00.000+02:00Admittedly, Jameel's original 65-55 threw me off, ...Admittedly, Jameel's original 65-55 threw me off, but it looks like he can choose either I'L or B'Y, and I bet I know which is easier for him.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-81661548108985318502009-02-11T00:27:00.000+02:002009-02-11T00:27:00.000+02:00Ezzie, based on the current exit polls, Bibi will ...Ezzie, based on the current exit polls, Bibi will need the support of ALL the RW and religious parties. Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas together do not push the Likud over the top.<BR/><BR/>There is of course another constellation to think of, and that is that Labor sits with Bibi, and that lowers the price of either Shas or Lieberman.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-65031596989272485142009-02-11T00:04:00.000+02:002009-02-11T00:04:00.000+02:00Sorry, that doesn't work. When it comes down to it...Sorry, that doesn't work. When it comes down to it, he NEEDS both Lieberman and Shas to make a RW coalition, no matter if he gets I'L or not. They're simply irrelevant.Ezziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12494592434522239195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-84374394318701221532009-02-11T00:02:00.000+02:002009-02-11T00:02:00.000+02:00Ezie, Don't be so quick to count out the I"L from ...Ezie, Don't be so quick to count out the I"L from the Right Wing coalition.<BR/><BR/>Bibi is going to need them if that is the direction he goes for one simple reason, they are going to give him the least headache from all his coalition partners.<BR/><BR/>The big problem is still Lieberman and Shas who can go either way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-66863271607404077892009-02-10T23:15:00.000+02:002009-02-10T23:15:00.000+02:00Jon: Thanks for commenting! (Wow...Pacific NW is s...Jon: Thanks for commenting! (Wow...Pacific NW is so far away from here...the global village shrinks daily)Jameel @ The Muqatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15890095633246557332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-68461997613856609712009-02-10T23:13:00.000+02:002009-02-10T23:13:00.000+02:00Layla Tov - regards from the Pacific NWLayla Tov - regards from the Pacific NWJonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15530215641986255283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-42013514650351798852009-02-10T23:11:00.000+02:002009-02-10T23:11:00.000+02:00Jon: I'm wiped out! :)anon 10:35 -- thanks for poi...Jon: I'm wiped out! :)<BR/><BR/>anon 10:35 -- thanks for pointing out the discrepancy in the excel sheet -- I updated it (with an explanation of how it happened).<BR/><BR/>Good Night all -- and I'm still convinced I voted correctly.Jameel @ The Muqatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15890095633246557332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13539920.post-62529109551166228942009-02-10T23:06:00.000+02:002009-02-10T23:06:00.000+02:00Going to bed so early?!?!Going to bed so early?!?!Jonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15530215641986255283noreply@blogger.com