Friday, February 06, 2009

Will the Likud be the second biggest party?

(A Post by Joe Settler)

(7:25 AM: Hamas hits Israel with rocket at Shaar HaNegev)

Elections are this Tuesday, and the Likud is dropping fast in all the polls, with the votes all heading on over to Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu.

Kadima is (temporarily?) still in second place (close or distant depending on who took the poll), but if the momentum of this war of attrition continues at the current pace, the Likud is in a serious threat of becoming the second biggest party.

Personally I am confused by two trends in the current race.

First, who in their right mind is still thinking of voting for Kadima?

I can understand not wanting to vote for the empty seats in Labor (and they've been rising too since pulling out and failing to ensure a decisive victory), but why are so many Left Wingers actually considering voting for this party of failures, opportunists, criminals, sex offenders and losers?

With every under reported missile that hits Israel, you should expect to see Kadima's failed ceasefire and pull-out drag them down even faster and further. Yet it doesn't!

Is it simply for lack of a viable alternative? How about Green-Meimad at least?


Second, while I understand the thinking to some people that Lieberman represents what the Likud is supposed to be, particularly with Bibi striving so hard to say he will include Labor and Kadima in his government... but still!

Can it be that Bibi is the driving force behind the Likud's rapid drop?

First Bibi scares away all the Settlers and Right Wing voters who would have voted Likud if Feiglin had been kept in position 20 - and that was when Likud had the highest number of voters in all the polls.

Now Bibi scares away all the traditional Likud voters by saying that he plans a coalition with Kadima and Labor.

I highly suspect that traditional Likud voters don't want Labor and Kadima in their government, and this is their message.

It could also be that Likud voters are angry at the violence, posturing and positioning taken by the local Arab citizenship during the last war, and Lieberman's message of Loyalty Tests appeals to them as proper punishment (or correction). But they aren't reading the rest of his platform or understanding the ramifications.

At least most of the polls show that Ichud Leumi, while still small, is consistently growing.

I'm hoping Jameel decides to weigh in on this strange and disturbing Lieberman-Likud phenomena.


Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael טובה הארץ מאד מאד

13 comments:

mother in israel said...

Could the Kadima voters be coming from farther left?

Anonymous said...

It would indeed be poetic justice if the likud ends up with 19 seats

mkf said...

Joe Settler I think you are right about why people are voting Lieberman...Arab loyalty tests etc. (and also that they are not reading the rest of his message)..and I agree...why would ANYONE vote Kadima. However Bibi has said he will form a coalition with Lieberman and Labor, not with Kadima & Labor. He also said he would first invite all the other national camps into the coaltion before he formed one with Lieberman/Labor. So...he is being somewhat misrepresented. Ichud Leumi won't be of any use in the Knesset if Kadima wins.... I wonder if the polls are accurate or manipulated by the media to have us THINK that Kadima is as popular. The media hates Bibi remember.

SoonToBeInIsrael said...

I was considering voting Likud, but after they demoted Feiglin, I realized the the party leadership (aka Bibi,) were not interested in listening to the members, so they lost my vote. I decided to vote for the party I identified with the most - NU.

My husband was still going to vote for them because he believes in big parties, but when he saw Lieberman's party was growing, he decided that he was big enough to be an option...and IB has his vote.

He realizes the ramifications of Lieberman's platform, but they don't bother him. Legalizing civil marriages? ok.. they have those in the USA too and they haven't destroyed the Jewish nation. A loyalty oath for Jews too (like Chareidim)? Hopefully, it won't get that far. Plus, the Bagatz will never agree to a loyalty oath. (I think he also thinks it is a good thing if citizens are loyal to their country.) A 2 state solutions? Netanyahu support that too, so why is he better than Lieberman?

Are there any other major issues I haven't mentioned?

SoonToBeInIsrael said...

And I am now in Israel - we made Aliya in September :)

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

MoI: Kadima voters are not from the far left -- its very trendy for the leftists in Tel Aviv to vote Chadah, the Greens or Meretz.

Soon to Be: I will definitely address your comments -- but now I have to go shopping for shabbat ;-)

(And I'm voting Likud, despite Netanyahu's despicable behaviour towards Moshe Feiglin)

NormanF said...

Kadima voters are disaffected centrists. But no one much likes the party now and it may well underperform relative to polls. The big story of this election is Israel Beitenu, which now has a realistic shot at becoming Israel's largest party.

If Avigdor Lieberman wins and becomes Prime Minister, the Likud will not forgive Bibi for bungling what was a sure election... by alienating the party's nationalist core. Live and learn.

mkf said...

Jameels comments about the far left voting Green, Meretz etc. are accurate. Kadima is not attracting the far left.

I have to throw this in about Bibi's treatment of Feiglin...while it was very wrong to do what he did, (and also very stupid and bizarre)Feiglin is not in line with Likud's platform and to try to "take over the party" as he has stated so many times...isn't much better...so in a way, Feiglin also got what he deserved.

I wish there was a better way than politics, but guess we gotta live with it til Moshiach comes..:)

Shabbat shalom

mother in israel said...

I don't mean the far left. Not every Meretz voter is the same. Some will vote for a far-left-wing party no matter what, but others might decide to go with Kadima this time.

Yesterday's headline in Haaretz, p.2:
סקר התנועה החדשה-מרצ: 8 מנדטיםד של מתלבטי שמאל עשויים לעבור לקדימה
Meretz ran a poll that found that 8 mandates from the ambivalent left will go to Kadima.

Seth said...

I was going to be voting Lieberman until he said he wanted to divide Jerusalem. How anyone could vote for THAT really bothers me. Likud all the way, despite the Feiglin affair.

jonathan goldstein said...

who is voting for kadima ? - we had a group of people over for lunch today - and of the 16 people here, everyone was voting for tzipi - we are not unaffected people that live in tel aviv, we just believe that force will not solve anything and the other options are soooo bad

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Dear Jonathan G,

Force will not solve anything? Howabout corruption? Kadima has had the most corrupt government in the history of Israel -- with many of the stars continuing on to the new government:


MK Tzachi HaNegbi (indicted, awaiting trial for fraud and breach of trust for allegedly making 69 inappropriate political appointments while serving as environment minister between 2001 and 2003)

MK Yaakov Edri (police recommend indictment for breach of trust and accepting a bribe, awaiting special hearing)

MK Eli Aflalo (under police investigation for bribery)

MK Ruchama Avraham (under police investigation for bribery)

MK Chaim Ramon (convicted sexual predator -- sexual harassment)

Former Finance Minister, MK Avraham Hirschson (indicted for breach of trust, aggravated fraud, theft and money laundering) and past MK Omri Sharon, convicted criminal of fraud and breech of public trust.

JoeSettler said...

There's no diplomatic solution.

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