Wednesday, February 11, 2009

First Thoughts

It's too early to know final results based on the very close election results we know so far (IDF soldier votes will be counted today), but in the meantime Bibi's people are probably sitting down and trying to figure out Ministerial constellations. This is probably one chart they came up with:

Deputy Prime Minister: Lieberman/Yisrael Beiteinu
Defense: Boogie Ya'alon/Likud
Finance: Bennie Begin/Likud
Foreign: Silvan Shalom/Likud
Building and Construction: Katzaleh/Ichud Leumi
Education: Hershowitz/Bayit Yehudi or Shas
Interior Minister: Eli Yishai/Shas
Absorption Minister: Danny Ayalon/Yisrael Beiteinu
Justice Minister: Dan Meridor/Likud
Religious Affairs: Shas
Social Affairs: UTJ
Communications: Ariel Attias/Shas
Transportation (or Interior Security): Uzi Landau/Yisrael Beiteinu
Interior Security or Special Minsiter for SuperStrategic Issues which sounds important: Lieberman/Yisrael Beiteinu

You can read more first thoughts on JoeSettler.

Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael טובה הארץ מאד מאד

29 comments:

Jehoshaphat said...

This sounds more like your dream team than a realistic guess at who Bibi will choose.

And this is all considering that Bibi even chooses a right wing coalition and not some kind of convoluted deal with the left.

But hey, can't blame a guy for dreaming.

Bet Shemesh Board Gaming Club said...

I think we might see Uzi Landau as Justice or Interior Minister. It's the position that Lieberman wants most I think, but can't have b/c of the investigation.

JoeSettler said...

WBSBGC: We were discussing that over on JoeSettler.

Commenter Abbi said...

I agree with Jehosaphat.

I hope you're satisfied with your vote when Livi or Bibi comes up with a left leaning government, maybe even including Arab parties.

JoeSettler said...

Abbi, the risk of Likud forming a government with the Left was present since the first time Bibi announced over a month ago that he would prefer a national unity government. That's why Likud lost votes to Lieberman (who would also sit with Kadima, but everyone ignores that).

The Arab parties would never be included in a Bibi led government, nor would they want to be in one.

I'm quite satisfied with my vote. The people I wanted in the Knesset are in (except for Uri Bank).

And if Bibi wants to form a right wing government, he will need Ichud Leumi. They are in a good position at the current counting.

Jeremy said...

I think the ministry of religious affairs no longer exists.

JoeSettler said...

Jeremy: Nothing is permanent in Israeli politics.

Lurker said...

Jeremy: I think the ministry of religious affairs no longer exists.

It continues to exist, with the same responsibilities and budget, as a division of the Prime Minister's Office.

JoeSettler: Nothing is permanent in Israeli politics.

Au contraire. Nothing ever changes in Israeli politics...

Sam Abrahms said...

why not this ....
Prime Minister: Tzipi Livni/ Kadima
Foreign: Bibi Netanyahu/Likud

JoeSettler said...

Sam: God forbid we should have anyone from that party of criminals, rejects, opportunists and losers in a place in this government.

The best thing that can happen is that Kadima is forced to be in the opposition, which will make that party dry up and wither away forever.

Grunter said...

I would give a lot to see a Defense Minister called Boogie.

Sam Abrahms said...

Joe, your description being criminals, rejects, opportunists and losers sound likes Likud - the biggest loser of them all is Bibi - he screwed up the 1st time he is only going to do it again. Livni is the only viable option for PM. She has a good head on her shoulders and for the moment she is clean. Livni is a winner and we should all be honoured to have her as our PM. Are you the type of person that believes an arab citizen should not have a right to be a citizen and that a woman should not be pm ?

JoeSettler said...

No, it only sounds like the Likud, before they all went over to Kadima.

Haven't you heard of Olmert, Ramon, Hirschson, Hanegbi, just to name a few illustrious Kadima members.

As for Livni, being a Mossad housesitter, that doesn't make her particularly qualified. She stuck us with 1701 and actually thinks that it was a victory! You just can't make this stuff up.


As for the rest of your questions, WTF?

Gila said...

Shas as education minister=dream team?????

Jewish Odysseus said...

Kadima is not a real party, recall. It was fabricated by Ariel Sharon alone, as a tribute to his personality cult. Remember he brought malcontents [mostly] from the Likud Left and the Labor Right, plus some personal poodles, and created the "centrist Kadima." And these people only joined Kadima because THEY WORSHIPPED POWER, and they saw thru Sharon's personal popularity [then] a golden opportunity for a free ride to power. No more fighting the more principled majorities in their own parties, hurrah!

Sharon thus gutted Likud and Labor...then stroked out. The party remnants put up an ineffective campaign in 2006, the Disengagement Disaster was not so clear...Olmert/Kadima wins!

But Kadima still was hollow at the core...How can you have a party based on a personality cult without that personality?

By sheer cynical political bribery and inertia, Kadima has survived to now, but you can be sure that, once they are out of power, they will indeed wither away. As they should.

It appears to me that the Right is VERY well positioned to create an effective government that will protect the Land of Israel. Likud will have LESS THAN HALF THE SEATS in its own coalition--how can they disregard the smaller parties? And will Bibi really rescue Kadima and Livni, that is the only credible threat to his leadership? I doubt he is that dumb.

I see this as an almost a perfect [realistic] result! [only Bibi winning 28-27 over Kadima wd be better].

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Hi Sam.

From a non-emotional point of view; (and without using the word losers, which I would not have used), Kadima is made up of many opportunists. And criminals or MKs under investigations, including the current PM Ehud Olmert, convicted sex criminal Chaim Ramon, followed by others under indictment or investigation: Hirschenson, Edri, Ruchama Avraham, and Tzachi HaNegbi.

In terms of Bibi screwing up, I don't think anyone disagrees with you -- except the typical scenarios presented in the Kadima commercials for his "screwups" are totally wrong.

1. Kotel tunnels. This was the right thing do -- and blaming Bibi for opening them weakens Kadima's position that it's a pro-Jerusalem centrist party.

2. Failed Mossad operation killing Khaled Mashal. If the Mossad had succeeded, we wouldnt have the problems in Gaza with Hamas that we have today. Saying that Bibi "caved in to pressure" (favorite Livni statement) and he released Ahmed Yassin in order to recover the jailed Mossad agents from Jordan is a lame attack, considering the price Livni and Olmert are about to pay for Shalit.

Livni may be Mrs. Clean, but her record is far from impressive. UN resolution 1701 has allowed for Hizbolla to rearm, we still had to pay a high price to get back our dead soldiers from Hizbollah, and our non-action over ongoing rocket strikes from Gaza is weakening our hard earned IDF deterrence.

Ari Shavit's piece in Haaretz is a clear warning to what sort of individual she really is.

Gila: I do not stand behind JoeSettler's "Dream Team" for a government in this post -- he wrote it, not me.

(And Shas as Education Ministry is bad news for everyone)

Simon said...

"Kadima is not a real party" - what planet are you on. Kadima is a legitimate party that WON the most seats out of any party in yesterdays election. 24% of the Israeli voting public cant have been fooled. the only people being fooled is you guys that have a distorted vision of Israel being an extreme right wing religeous state

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Simon: Of course its a "legitimate" party. We dont know if it WON the most seats yet -- it may very well be tied with the Likud.

What is certain is that the majority of Israelis yesterday did vote for a right-wing and religious Knesset.

The majority of Israel did not vote for Livni, Kadima or the Left.

You can't spin it that the majority of Israel wants Livni -- that simply flies in the face of reality that the right wing is larger than the left wing bloc by 10 seats.

Soccer Dad said...

Jameel,
The botched hit on Meshal and the subsequent release of Yassin plus the refusal to extradite Abu Marzook were major screwups. Saying that Livni & co would do worse doesn't really take away from that.

JS,
Silvan Shalom was such a success at FM, he'd get the post again?

Tzipporah said...

Wait, there's really a guy on the lists named *Boogie* ?!?

muse said...

Bibi goofed by playing to the center. Lieberman read things right and played to the right.

JoeSettler said...

Excuse me. I never said this was my "dream team", I said this is a realistic configuration that is probably being considered.

Commenter Abbi said...

It's "Bogey" Ya'alon, not "Boogie". He got the nickname because he looks like Bogart. Unfortunately, Israelis have mangled it to "Boogie".

Commenter Abbi said...

It's "Bogey" Ya'alon, not "Boogie". He got the nickname because he looks like Bogart. Unfortunately, Israelis have mangled it to "Boogie".

Commenter Abbi said...

I think the problem was that Bibi was doing this "Cool Hand Luke" thing since the Lebanon War and just never shook himself out of it for the elections. He thought or some stupid PR person thought that all he had to do was sit back and be Mr. Cool and Low Key and he'd let Kadima's/Labor's bungling do the campaigning for him.

Guess that strategy wasn't as effective for him as he thought it was.

Lurker said...

JoeSettler: ...Bibi's people are probably sitting down and trying to figure out Ministerial constellations. This is probably one chart they came up with...

Jehoshaphat: This sounds more like your dream team than a realistic guess at who Bibi will choose.

Gila: Shas as education minister=dream team?????

Jameel: I do not stand behind JoeSettler's "Dream Team" for a government in this post -- he wrote it, not me.

What's going on here? Joe presents a scenario of what Bibi's people might be considering, and Jehoshaphat rejects the scenario as unrealistic, claiming that the list sounds more like Joe's own "dream team".

From that point onward, everyone starts relating to the list as though it really were Joe's "dream team" -- something that he never said at all, as anyone can easily see.

Come on, people. How about a little effort at basic reading comprehension...

Renegade said...

JoeSettler (and anybody else for that matter): Just out of curiosity, what would your "Dream Team" of ministers be?

Jehoshaphat said...

Lurker,

I was wondering when someone was going to point that out. Although I do have to say that I was getting a bit of a kick at having so easily steered the course of the comments ;)

Anonymous said...

Why don’t you just give your government over to Obama.

He could solve all your problems just like he is solving America’s.

You aren’t racist are you?

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