Tuesday, January 22, 2013

And the results of the Israeli elections are...

...still to early to know.

My prediction based on everything running around the web:

Likud Beiteinu: 30
Yesh Atid: 20
Labor: 16
Bayit Yehudi: 13
Shas:8
Meretz: 7
Livni's Movement: 6
Aguda/UTJ: 4
Amnon Yitzchak: 2
Otzma LYisrael: 2
Am Shalem: 2
Arab parties: 10

Caveat;  The numbers for Bayit Yehudi and Shas can go up at the expense of Amnon Yitzchak, Otzma lYisrael and Am Shalem.

However, I don't believe we will have a real results till 3-4 AM Israel time....maybe even later.

Good luck to us all.....

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10 comments:

Reb Chaim HaQoton said...

Aguda is running with UTJ...

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

RCHQ: Updated to join Aguda and UTJ, but it doesn't change anything.

josh said...

soldiers votes include a few thousand benishim who are BY. Bennet thinks he has two mandates only from soldiers.

Anonymous said...

Revise Arab vote down.

Ben Chorin

Anonymous said...

i would love to know how you got to these numbers

Anonymous said...

Hard to see UTJ losing another seat and Shas at 8 is implausible.

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Josh: A few thousand votes isnt enough to bring 2 more seats to Bennett -- The value of each seat is going to tens of thousands of votes, not less than 10 thousand.

UTJ can easily lose a seat since the Chareidim are voting less this time and the general participation is much higher than usual.

As we get closer to the zero hour, Likud seems to be facing even less than 30 seats...

NormanF said...

Jameel,

Channel 2 pollsters disagree with you!

Their latest projection shows Likud winning 33 seats.

And the night is still young.

josh said...

Kudos Jameel for your Likud and Lapid as well as Meretz guess which were surprises for other pollsters.

For the others, the negative campaign against them worked - Am Shalem, Otzma, Amnon Yitzhak.

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Thanks Josh :)


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