The Muqata's Guide to Voting in the Likud Primaries

On second thought, I will have a separate post. Coming up soon.


Coming soon with recommendations for tomorrow's primaries.

In the meantime, this is mandatory reading

Here's everything you need to know about the Likud primaries, which are scheduled for December 8.

One person's take on Manhigut Yehudit and The Likud

Matot Arim's -- Recommendations (note, these are not mine...yet...coming up soon) Of the list below that I endorse 100%, I have highlighted in orange.

Where do we vote?? Click here: http://www.likudnik.co.il/page.aspx?pageID=24. Bring your teudat zehut or if you can't find it -- your driving license. You don't need to vote where you live -- vote at any convenient station on the above list. It's from 9 AM to 11 PM, but better to go early.

What are the rules? You must vote for 12 general candidates, 2 olim and 1 regional candidate (total: 15). The computer does not accept your vote until you do.

Recommended candidates (firmly against Palestinian state in word thought and deed, as per our written records and research):

Olim: first vote -- Asya Entov 203. Second vote -- Shmuel Sacket 211 or Ariel Bulstein 210.

Regional (you can only vote for ONE of these -- according to your city of residence): In Shfela (Rehovot, Ashdod, Rishon, etc.) : Yariv Levin 304 or Dr. Gabi Avital 301 (both great). In Gush Dan: 324 Tali Argaman. In Haifa: 345 Yonatan Goldblatt. In Coastal Plain: 320 Danny Danon. In Galilee, 310 Davidi Harmelin. In Tel-Aviv: 333 Emanuel Veiser. In Yesha 359 Yossi Fuchs or 358 Boaz Haetzni, both excellent. In Jerusalem, 351 Dudu (David) Golan. (Shmuel Slavin 356 and Kati Shitrit 357 are more realistic albeit less good). In Regional Councils, Moshe Tayar 362. In the Negev, Eli Malca 340.

Choose your 12 general candidates from the following who are firmly against Palestinian state in word thought and deed, as per our written records and research:

Ayub Kara 158, Michi Ratzon 164, Ehud Yatom 133, Leah Nes 146, Daniel Benlulu 112, Moshe Feiglin 151, Zipi Hutabeli 125, Sagiv Asulin 106, Haim Katz 137, Yuli Edelstein 103, Rubi Rivlin 163, Michael Kleiner 157, Moshe Cahlon 135, Gilad Erdan 107, Gideon Saar 147, Gila Gamliel 116.

(Benny Begin and Bugi Yaelon are good too, but since they are definitely going to get in with or without your vote, it's better to use your vote to generate that crucial parliamentary majority against Palestinian state).

Fred Monchars 355 (Jerusalem Area)

Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael טובה הארץ מאד מאד

Day of Judgement for Israel's Pollsters

At 10 PM last night, you could hear the glee in their voices on TV and Radio:

The exit polls predict that Tzippi Livni is the new leader of Kadima!

Channel 10's Poll - 49%
Channel 1's Poll - 47%
Channel 2's Poll - 48%

It's becoming almost routine for Israel's pollsters and media pundits to get it wrong time after time. True, Tzippy Livni did win, but by 341 votes. The margin of error for a win by 341 votes makes it statistically impossible to have accurately predicted that Livni would win -- based on scientific statistical models.

One should tip their hat to the "Yisrael Hayom" (Israel Today) newspaper whose headline this morning read: "Ma'avak Tzamud" (or "neck and neck") and refused to print outright that Livni won. At one point last night during the count, Mofaz was even leading Livni by 40 votes.

So what happened? How does it happen that time after time, Israel's pollsters and media get it wrong? How did every single polling company predict that Livni would win by a double digit landslide, yet in reality she won by 1 percent?

The red-faced pollsters (and Israel's media pundits, like IDF radio host Razi Barkai) placed the blame this morning not upon themselves, but due to "the lying, conneiving Israeli."

Instead of looking at the pollsters for answers, one should be turning to sociologists and societal psychologists...or ask the pollsters why they skew results?

Everyone laughed at Shaul Mofaz when he made his "bombastic" announcement a few days ago, that he would win the primaries with a result of 43.7% of the vote -- after all, Haaretz 's poll predicted a landslide victory for Livni.

Of everyone who made predictions, Shaul Mofaz was the closest to reality! While he did lose -- Livni received 43% and himself 42%, he was closer than any other polster or pundit. Mofaz knew his people were showing up to vote, which is why he was so certain of his win. What is he secret -- perhaps he really should be the leader of Kadima?

Why would an Israeli "lie" to a pollster?

Perhaps because people enjoy getting egg on the face of the arrogant media outlets that try to run our lives on a daily basis.

Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael טובה הארץ מאד מאד