At 10 PM last night, you could hear the glee in their voices on TV and Radio:
The exit polls predict that Tzippi Livni is the new leader of Kadima!
Channel 10's Poll - 49%
Channel 1's Poll - 47%
Channel 2's Poll - 48%
It's becoming almost routine for Israel's pollsters and media pundits to get it wrong time after time. True, Tzippy Livni did win, but by 341 votes. The margin of error for a win by 341 votes makes it statistically impossible to have accurately predicted that Livni would win -- based on scientific statistical models.
One should tip their hat to the "Yisrael Hayom" (Israel Today) newspaper whose headline this morning read: "Ma'avak Tzamud" (or "neck and neck") and refused to print outright that Livni won. At one point last night during the count, Mofaz was even leading Livni by 40 votes.
So what happened? How does it happen that time after time, Israel's pollsters and media get it wrong? How did every single polling company predict that Livni would win by a double digit landslide, yet in reality she won by 1 percent?
The red-faced pollsters (and Israel's media pundits, like IDF radio host Razi Barkai) placed the blame this morning not upon themselves, but due to "the lying, conneiving Israeli."
Instead of looking at the pollsters for answers, one should be turning to sociologists and societal psychologists...or ask the pollsters why they skew results?
Everyone laughed at Shaul Mofaz when he made his "bombastic" announcement a few days ago, that he would win the primaries with a result of 43.7% of the vote -- after all, Haaretz 's poll predicted a landslide victory for Livni.
Of everyone who made predictions, Shaul Mofaz was the closest to reality! While he did lose -- Livni received 43% and himself 42%, he was closer than any other polster or pundit. Mofaz knew his people were showing up to vote, which is why he was so certain of his win. What is he secret -- perhaps he really should be the leader of Kadima?
Why would an Israeli "lie" to a pollster?
Perhaps because people enjoy getting egg on the face of the arrogant media outlets that try to run our lives on a daily basis.
Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael טובה הארץ מאד מאד