Showing posts with label presidential elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label presidential elections. Show all posts

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Day of Judgement for Israel's Pollsters


At 10 PM last night, you could hear the glee in their voices on TV and Radio:

The exit polls predict that Tzippi Livni is the new leader of Kadima!

Channel 10's Poll - 49%
Channel 1's Poll - 47%
Channel 2's Poll - 48%

It's becoming almost routine for Israel's pollsters and media pundits to get it wrong time after time. True, Tzippy Livni did win, but by 341 votes. The margin of error for a win by 341 votes makes it statistically impossible to have accurately predicted that Livni would win -- based on scientific statistical models.

One should tip their hat to the "Yisrael Hayom" (Israel Today) newspaper whose headline this morning read: "Ma'avak Tzamud" (or "neck and neck") and refused to print outright that Livni won. At one point last night during the count, Mofaz was even leading Livni by 40 votes.

So what happened? How does it happen that time after time, Israel's pollsters and media get it wrong? How did every single polling company predict that Livni would win by a double digit landslide, yet in reality she won by 1 percent?

The red-faced pollsters (and Israel's media pundits, like IDF radio host Razi Barkai) placed the blame this morning not upon themselves, but due to "the lying, conneiving Israeli."

Instead of looking at the pollsters for answers, one should be turning to sociologists and societal psychologists...or ask the pollsters why they skew results?

Everyone laughed at Shaul Mofaz when he made his "bombastic" announcement a few days ago, that he would win the primaries with a result of 43.7% of the vote -- after all, Haaretz 's poll predicted a landslide victory for Livni.

Of everyone who made predictions, Shaul Mofaz was the closest to reality! While he did lose -- Livni received 43% and himself 42%, he was closer than any other polster or pundit. Mofaz knew his people were showing up to vote, which is why he was so certain of his win. What is he secret -- perhaps he really should be the leader of Kadima?

Why would an Israeli "lie" to a pollster?

Perhaps because people enjoy getting egg on the face of the arrogant media outlets that try to run our lives on a daily basis.


Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael טובה הארץ מאד מאד

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Shimon Peres: Israel's new Prime Minister! President

As Presidential contender, MK Reuven Rivlin said today, "Today I have entered the Guinness Book for World Records, for I am the first to have ever lost to Shimon Peres..."



For the first time in over 25 years, the above video clip is incorrect...Peres has won an election.

Unfortunately for Israel, I think Peres still believes he won the Prime Ministership.

I can easily foresee in a year or two, Gaza's war against us will continue, and elected Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to worry about...President Peres. Peres will globe trot, broker "peace" deals of no value which are totally out of his domain, and Netanyahu will be faced with the impossible challenge of dealing with a competing Prime Minister, Shimon Peres.

Even today, as Peres was incorrectly pronouncing words from the Tanach at his acceptance speech in the Knesset, the Peres Peace Center was hosting the following anti-Zionist European NGO conference.

The keynote speech at this week's NGO event is being given by Avram Burg, described by the conference program as an “Israeli political personality,” despite Burg’s revealing interview with Haaretz (June 1) in which he calls for Israel to cease being a Jewish entity.

Each of the Israeli organizations invited – Betselem. Combatants for Peace, Israeli Coalition Against Home Demolitions, Machsom Watch, Parents' Circle, Rabbis for Human Rights and Yesh Din – carries a uniquely venomous message which describes Israel’s very presence in Judea and Samaria as a criminal violation of international law. One of those groups, the Israel Committee for Home Demolitions (ICHAD), goes so far as to compare Israeli law with Nazi law. In a presentation in March 2000 on a Boston affiliate of National Public Radio, ICHAD head Jeff Halper alleged that Israel's zoning and building regulations are not ordinary laws, and that Israel's legal system resembles the Nazi Nuremberg Laws. Halper has never retracted that comparison.

Arab speakers at the conference include Fatah leaders Yassir Abed Rabo and Jibril Rajub, who are unlikely to mention that Fatah continues to conduct terror operations against Israelis. No one at the conference will remind participants that Fatah's Al Aksa Brigades is defined by the US, the EU and Israel as a terrorist organization that has not renounced its ways. hat-tip; Lurker and Rafi G.

Shimon Peres won today.
And the people of Israel lost.



Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Muqata Election Predictions

Today's Ami Ayalon is competing against Ehud Barak in the Labor Party chairman election.

Barak called on Labor Party members to vote, and said that he was the only one who could unite the Labor party, and beat Knesset Member Benjamin Netanyahu.

Ayalon said that he felt he had a good chance at winning. “If they want a regeneration of the party, and a different road than the one it has been taking, my chances are good – if not, I will remain in the party as a regular member.” (YNET)

Muqata Prediction: Ehud Barak by 58%.

Tomorrow is the Israeli Presidential Election.

Contestants: Shimon Peres (darling of Israel's media), Collete Avital (Labor part candidate), Reuven Rivlin (Likud, all around nice guy has his heart in the right place, but said he pardon Palestinian Terrorist Marwan Bargoutti, if the Government requested. Best of the 3...)

Shas "Spiritual Leader", R' Ovadya Yosef has publicly committed Shas support to Shimon Peres and said, "Whoa (sp?) to anyone's spirit if they vote for anyone but Peres", implying that if you want to lose your share in Heaven, then don't vote for Peres...

While Israeli pundits are saying that Shimon Peres will probably win due to the support from Shas, I don't believe at the end of the day, that all the Shas MKs will line up and vote for Peres, despite R' Ovadya's blessing of losing their share in the world to come.

Muqata Prediction: Rivlin will win by a few votes.
Caveat: If Colette Avital drops out of the race at the last second, then Peres will win.

Reference Material; Quotes from Peres, displayed on posters around Jerusalem.



There's nothing to be proud of in Jewish History (UNESCO Conf. 1994)

Jewish Youth should divorce themselves from our past. (UNESCO Conf. 1994)

Give me peace, and I'll forgo Israel's nuclear capabilities (4.1.96)

Bombing the Iranian Nuclear Reactor was a mistake (24.12.95)

There is no antisemitism in France (27.2.02)

Olmert is one of Israel's best Prime Ministers (17.3.07

If it were up to me I would remove History from the school curriculum (11.4.07)

To dance the tango, you need to close your eyes and let the romance flow...peace is a romantic process.

I declare that the [Palestinian-Israeli] conflict is over! No finger will ever again touch a trigger.

100 years of terror are over, and now start 100 years of peace and coexistence. (13.5.95

)

MKs: Now's your chance to receive Jameel @ The Muqata's blessing for health, a long life, and prosperity. Tomorrow: Vote for Rivlin!



Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael

Monday, June 11, 2007

Great News from Israel!

So many good things going on here today...

1. The successful launch of the "Ofek 7" (Horizon 7) Spy satellite. Despite published reports that the 500 kilometer high-in-the-sky satellite can see objects at resolutions on Earth of only 70 centimeters, the head of Israeli space program in the Defence Ministry said the actual resolutions was far better and in the the range of "only a few centimeters"

(Ofek 7 launches on a Shavit-2 missile late last night. Picture, courtesy of Ministry of Defense)

Ofek-7 was launched at precisely 2:40 am and is currently in orbit. A comprehensive test of its systems will be carried out in the coming hours. Israel is expected to begin receiving images within 48 to 72 hours.

The new satellite is expected to provide Israel with better intelligence, particularly with regards to Iran.

“The satellite has advanced abilities, which along with other satellites already in space, will drastically improve Israel’s operational and intelligence capabilities,” said a senior security source. (YNET)

2. Pork lovers in Israel suffer serious setback.

It's a sad day for pork lovers in Israel.


When not out helping Israel's less fortunate residents of Sederot (by providing them with tent cities of refuge while Israel does little to help) billionaire Arcady Gaydamak has just purchased a 51% controlling interest in the "Tiv Taam" non-kosher supermarket chain for close to 100 million dollars. Immediately after the sale, Gaydamak announced that he plans to keep the chain's stores closed on shabbat and only sell kosher from now on.

"In my view, as a Jew and as a public figure in Jewish society, the promotion, distribution and sale of pork products in Israel offends the Jewish tradition. Therefore, my first order of business will be to ban the distribution and sale of pork products," the billionaire explained to Yedioth Aharonoth in an interview. (YNET)

On the radio this morning, he said it was a "provocation" to sell pork in Israel. Of course, pork producing Kibbutz Mizra is outraged at the decision and responded on the radio this morning by saying Gaydamak had no right to do such a thing, and that they have a quality factory on their kibbutz, and had done much for Eretz Yisrael over the past 85 years. "Much"...as in being the only pork supplier in Israel.

3. Rise of 225 percent in high-tech deals in Israel

"The high-tech industry continues to contribute significantly to the entry of foreign investors and companies into the Israeli industry, serving as an important springboard for other industries in the economy," Eli Barkat, co-chairman of the annual high-tech conference held by the Israel Venture Association (IVA), said Sunday.

Business transactions total $12.04 billion in 2006, compared to approximately $3.7 billion in 2005, on backdrop of more than 300-percent rise in extent of companies' purchases. (YNET)

High Tech jobs are available in Israel! If you work in high tech, there are jobs here for you.

4. Presidential elections in Israel are this coming Wednesday: Shimon Peres vs. Reuven (Ruby) Rivlin. (Collete Avital from the Labor party is also running, but it's doubtful she will even vote for herself)

A few comments; Shimon Peres was cursed by the Gerrer Rebbe in the 1980s that he should never again be "The Head"...and he has never won an election since. However, it seems like this time around Peres has a chance since R' Avodya Yosef (The Shas "Spiritual Leader") has publicly come out in favor of Peres.

The classic Peres Paradox: "If Shimon Peres ran for the World's Biggest Loser Competition, would he come in first?"

Everyone agrees he has the best chance to win now in the past 30 years...and the media is doing all it can to pump up the volume.

I'm not convinced.

In fact, I still think Rivlin has a chance. See what Uri Urbach has to say about Shimon Peres, who pandered to the Chareidi community by repeating the mantra "B'Ezrat Hashem" (With G-d's help) in an interview with Mishpacha magazine.

To: Mr. Shimon Peres, Tel Aviv

From: The Section for Enforcing the Ten Commandments, Do not Take the Lord’s Name in Vain Department, Heaven

Dear Mr. Peres,

On the 21st of Sivan, 5767 (June 7, 2007) you gave an interview to our friend Yossi Elituv of the haredi weekly Mishpahah. In the course of the interview you mentioned the name of the Holy One Blessed be He a number of times without his authorization or agreement. You were attempting to create the impression among the religious readers that you and the Holy One are on friendly terms, and that Hashem Himself supports your candidacy for the presidency of the State of Israel.

Needless to say, the Master of the Universe does not express any support for one candidate or another, and the choice is made by human beings. Bringing God’s name into the elections creates a false impression that He prefers a particular candidate, which is liable, Heaven forbid, to harm His Holy Name.

Read the rest of it, here.

5. Gaza continues to fight the war on terror as Fatah and Hamas kill each other.

Yesterday, Hamas gunmen kidnapped Muhammad Sawirki, a 24-year-old a member of Abbas's elite presidential guard, took him to the roof of a 15-story apartment building and threw him to his death.

In retaliation, Fatah militants surrounded the house of a Hamas mosque preacher, fired rocket-propelled grenades at the four-story building and then entered, firing at the preacher, and taking him away. Later, his body was brought to a hospital. (JPOST)

Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that 92% of Palestinians are depressed over the infighting between Hamas and Fatah terrorists.

That's all for now; Have a great Monday...

Jameel



Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael

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