There’s a lot of talk about the “Third Intifada” in the news lately (the first whispers of the Third Intifada were already being heard more than a year ago).
Arguments are coming from all sides explaining the latest upswing in Arab violence occurring on both sides of the “Green Line”, either as the start of the “next” Intifada, the warning signs of the coming third Intifada, or having no connection at all to any Intifada and it’s just a hiccup or related to internal Arab politics (isn’t it always).
Other theories say it’s related to the death of the “Peace Process”, while some connect it to statements by Obama, that by unconditionally promising them a Palestinian State in 2 years regardless of their actions, they’re now free to attack Israel and Jews without consequence.
I’ll leave it to Lurker to pontificate if the First Initifada was spontaneous or directed, but the Second Initifada was clearly planned and directed by the PA.
This Third Initifada which is upon us, and has been growing for a while is clearly directed by various actors in the Arab/Islamic arena including Iran, Hamas, the PA, and the Islamic Brotherhood (Do I include Hizbollah and Al Quida? I don't think so at the moment), some working together, some separately to create this groundswell of violence –but all with the same goal.
Their method this time appears to be to get it going from the bottom up, while having it look undirected, through creating an atmosphere from above through incitement, rumor and even outright statements that sends the clear message out.
But the recent arrest of Islamic Brotherhood figures, statements by Ahmed Tibi, and other PA officials show that the orders are coming from on top.
Currently the violence is “limited” to random drive-by shootings, Jerusalem rioting, bulldozers, rock throwing, arson, stabbings, and antiquities destruction. I would exclude the mortar and Kassam attacks as part of the definition – at this stage.
But all these participants clearly have an interest in stoking the fire.
And they can control it.
The question is will they turn the Third Intifada into something full-blown or not?
Or perhaps the real question is, will Israel tolerate a Third Intifada, and how will we respond?
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