Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Election Predictions.

The Muqata's Israeli Election Prediction is as follows:

Quadima: 28
Labor: 22
Likud; 20
Yisrael Bayteinu; 12
NU/NRP: 12
Shas: 11
Arabs: 5
Degel/Aguda: 4
Meretz:4
Alei Yarok: 2




Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael

20 comments:

Jak Black said...

I like your predictions. But I think you have Labor and Likud somewhat high, Shas and Degel a bit low. I would not be surprised at all if Quadima only gets 28, or even less.

Mike Miller said...

Jameel... we've been through this. U doesn't/don't belong in Q(u)adima...

Mike Miller said...

As I was going to vote this morning, I passed a labo(u)r party supporter outside of the matnas. He was shouting "rak avodah" -- somehow, I wonder if that's what they say come time for the (yearly? monthly? weekly?) strikes...

Ben said...

Plausible but I think you're low on Agudah and Arabs, high on YB, and that Marzel will get in and AY won't.

Anonymous said...

who are AY?

Oleh Yahshan said...

you hit low on YB, and I think that it will take votes from Likud.
AY might get in.
I happen to agree with The qadima prediction, I think there was something very strange about the polls in the past few months..
We will find out in 6 hours.

Mike Miller said...

AY = Alei Yarok (green leaf: the party to legalize marijuana)

ifyouwillit said...

Interesting predictions and a kenesset that wouldn't be as disappointing as other possible outcomes.

I'd say fewer for Likud and more for Ichud Leumi, and I'd be supised if AY got more than one seat.

Scraps said...

Is Yisrael Beiteinu a new party? I never heard of them before.

Any guesses about possible coalitions?

A Frum Idealist said...

assuming those are the results, is that good for the jews or bad for the jews?

abutorzoo said...

Regardless of how it comes out - if Q(u)adima and Labor get 55 seats together, the country is doomed.

They will take another small party together with them and wreak havoc on this country.

Right now, the exit polls are showing 34 for Q(u)adima, 23 for Labor - totalling 57 seats between the two. They can take in a smaller party that can be easily paid off - such as the pensioners party (exit polls are showing 5 seats for them) and they have a coalition.

Rafi G said...

exit polls are often wrong (in Israel). People enjoy fooling the media..

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Tick tock tick tock...just voted.

Clocks a ticking...polls close soon.

rockofgalilee said...

pensioners with 5????
That's a joke.

Jerusalemcop said...

rock.

exit poll from arutz 1, gives them 8

crazy country

J.

lurker said...

If Bibi and Lieberman can make a sweet enough offer to the Pensioners, and get Shas and Agudah on board as well, then they still have enough to form a blocking coalition against Olmert. They'll have to give the Pensioners everything they want and more, though, because Olmert will try to do the same.

It seems to me that the future of this country is about to be determined by a bidding war to buy the Pensioners.

lurker said...

Never mind my earlier comment. The calculation was based on numbers from last night's projections, which could have created a blocking coalition of 61. This morning's numbers come only to 58, which is not enough. :-(

Jerusalem Dreams said...

Pretty darn acurate prediction regarding Kadima, Labor, YB, Meretz. Of course the Gimlayim took everyone by surprise. If they do get the money they need, the Health Funds stand to profit most.

Jameel @ The Muqata said...

JDreams: My 2 biggest inaccuracies were Likud (more wishful thinking than hard analysis...but I'm not surprised)...and NU/NRP was lower as well.

The Kadima prediction was obivous -- though not ONE polling comapny was anywhere near it...which should tell you alot about the media and polling companies in Israel...as well as something about the Muqata ;-)

Greg said...

My biggest surprise and disappointment is that Likud got so few seats. My hat's off to Bibi for continuing to fight in the spirit of Menachem Begin and Ze'ev Zhabotinky. My secon biggest disappointment is Hazit not getting any seats-or so it seems. The third biggest disappointment I had(have) was(is) the fact that now Kadima, Avoda, Gimlayim/Meretz/Yisrael Beiteinu can form a coalition and reek havoc on the country as we know it(as we've known it).

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