What's going on in the Arab/Islamic world is fascinating. With all the riots and coups it can get so confusing as to which governments are in and out, which ones are on the way out, and what direction these countries are headed.
To help me keep it straight (and I'm still not 100% sure I got it all right, except the last one), I made a list of the major countries facing internal threats from anti-government forces, organizations, and movements.
Tunis. Government is out. Islamists in power. Islamists will probably keep power.
Lebanon. Government is out. Islamist in power. Islamists will probably keep power.
Egypt. Government appears to be on the way out. Not clear if Islamists, Military or Democracy will take hold (OK, who am I kidding with that last line).
Jordan. Government still in charge, but for how long? Palestinians likely to take over if riots escalate and overthrow government.
Palestinian Authority/Gaza. Government is out. Islamists in charge. Likely to stay that way.
Palestinian Authority/West Bank. Government likely to be toppled soon. Islamists will take charge.
Iran. Government (Islamists) in charge. Green movement crushed.
Iraq. Government stabilized by US forces. Chance it will fall after complete US withdrawal. Islamists would then take over.
Sudan. Divided. North Sudan is Islamic. South Sudan is not Islamic, but in a precarious position. Unclear how long South Sudan can survive.
Yemen. Unclear what will happen, except that it's guaranteed to remain radically Islamic.
Saudi Arabia. Government (Islamists) in charge. Likely to stay that way.
Israel. Government stable. Democracy. Not Islamic. Likely to stay that way.
Feel free to post your comments, additions, or corrections.
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