September promises to be a challenging time for Israel.
In September, the Palestinian Authority will further abrogate the Oslo Accords and unilaterally go to the UN to be granted statehood based on the ’67 armistice line. At this point it will immediately be in a state of war (as if it wasn’t already) with the Jewish state. And the UN will probably consider sanctions against Israel.
(As a reminder, the land of Israel, including that of Judea and Samaria were apportioned at the 1922 San Remo conference for the Jewish state.)
At present, there doesn’t seem too much that Israel can do to stop this.
But perhaps there is.
If nothing else, Israel can (preemptively?) annex (or threaten to annex) areas C, declaring that we are prepared to negotiate the status of area A, and maybe area B. That would change a lot of issues that are currently taken for granted.
Perhaps the threat would also be enough to make them think twice, but probably not. Certainly at a minimum, the legal battle would be on different terms than they are today.
I was listening to a talk by Professor Guy Bechor of the IDC the other day.
He has an interesting position and solution.
He said that Israel is at a disadvantage against the Palestinian Authority, because they are considered “moderate” by the world, even if they aren’t.
He adds that the Palestinian Authority has not collapsed yet for one reason. Israel.
The IDF keeps Hamas at bay, thus sustaining the Palestinian Authority. The Foreign Ministry completely agrees with this assessment.
Bechor proposes that Israel pull back the IDF from operations in the Arab controlled areas and stop security cooperation at that level.
The world would applaud Israel (for a day or so) for pulling out.
But at this point, it is only a short time until the Palestinian Authority is overthrown by Hamas, which is more explicit in their goal to destroy Israel.
We would have a situation in Areas A of Judea/Samaria like we have in Gaza.
Bechor believes that perhaps enough of the world would accept the concept that a Hamas controlled territory doesn’t deserve a recognized state.
And yes, there would be a rise in terrorism attempts, but for Bechor, the September threat of the Palestinian Authority is an existential one for Israel, whereas Hamas is something we can contain as we already do in Gaza.
Some concerns I have with his idea is that it assumes that Hamas will try to take over immediately instead of waiting until after September, and that it is unlikely that Hamas-Fatah will form a unity government.
(I just found an article where Bechor puts forward some of these ideas)
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